Judging the health of a market

I was just going through the curriculum today when I happened to notice about “Markets” and “Industry Information”.

Following next hour, I spent learning as much as I can on how to measure the strength of the market (this is in reference to nation).

I found out that there are crucial parameters on which we could possibly measure the well being of a market and evaluate it. They are

• The Growth of Stock Market index over a period of time ( say 6 years) :

Example: HSE index has barely grown double the amount from 2000 to 2007, on the other hand Shanghai index has nearly tripled in last year (source CNN).
By that logic most of the European markets are at their worst stages, so would not be the best places to do business in.

In the same breath, if we see the bench mark indexes of

Phillipines ( PCOMP index), Singapore ( STI index), China ( SHCOMP and SZCOMP index)and Brazil (ibov index) are doing much better and economy looks to take off in these countries.

• Growth of Foreign direct Investment:

This is a totally new word for me. Quoting Wikipedia FDI “is a cross-border investment made by an investor with a view to establishing a lasting financial interest in an enterprise and exerting a degree of influence on that enterprise's operations and where the foreign investor holds an interest of at least 10% in equity capital”.

Simply means that MNC’s should be interested to invest in that company because the returns are higher. As an instance though Pakistan may still be the darling state of Mr.George Bush, it is not doing so good in terms of FDI since the region is marked by bombings, clashes and political turmoil now and then.

http://globalis.gvu.unu.edu/indicator.cfm?IndicatorID=155&country=MV#rowMV

Luxemburg tops the chart with FDI 349.96, Chad with 32.08 comes at much better position than India at 0.71 but we need to check the growth of FDI over years. Clearly India is the second ranker after China in growth of FDI. In 2006 the country witnessed 156 % growth in FDI over last year. Unbelievable!! Follow this article,
http://www.sunmediaonline.com/indiachronicleapril/investmentupdate.html


At same time a closer look would also reveal that China is considered a better market than India mostly because it has proved an excellent growth of FDI in recent years. Find this: http://www.rediff.com/money/2002/jul/29fdi.htm

• Capital Inflow:

This means - a net flow of capital, real and/or financial, into a country, in the form of increased purchases of domestic assets by foreigners and/or reduced holdings of foreign assets by domestic residents. Recorded as positive, or a credit, in the balance on capital account. Clearly more the capital inflow better is the economic health of the country.

• Real Estate price and number of foreign investors opening shops in the country:

This has mainly to do with lot many MNC’s opening up their branches and crowding the place. More Employment which basically explains the point below. Interestingly the purchasing capacity pf people also increases, leading to vicious cycle some thing which can be seen in cities like Bangalore and Hyderabad.

• Economic Growth Rate:

Increasing Economic growth rate is yet another indicator of healthy market.

• Unemployment:

If the Unemployment growth is dripping the country is definitely taking off in business world. Consider the job scenario in India a score years back and now. We have come a long way from seeing youth taking to suicides for lack of vacancy to (touch wood) a stage where we have liberty to choose which job to be in.

These are just a few parameters on which I guess we could use to evaluate market pulse. For more gyaan, I have to wait for classes at SPJCMR.

Note: We have not talked about Inflation. Some countries are considered business hot spot though no check has been made on Inflation. Example: India.

A peek into SPJGMBA

The chart above would explain my Decision to go for SPJAIN Global MBA program though i got selected in ASU, Terry , Mason school of Business with offers of

scholarship around $34,000, in- state tution fees, assistanship and loan without a co-signer !

"The sucess with a start up depends on the power of the Idea for which it was born".

I am sure that the rate at which GMBA is being targetted by students across the nation is because it is suddenly seen as the answer to most of people who have profile like me .

Age : 21- 25

Work Exp: 2-4 years

Aim : To double the income in one year

With devlopment happening at a fathoming pace around, the need for middle level managers is increasing at an alarming rate and unless this is answered the future seems to be bleak, GMBA suddenly seems to be the right choice at the right time with right people.

Even trying out the program in USA is not a bad idea but if one observes the statistics one would find that the maturity level and the number of digits of bank balance seems to be far fecthed for people of above profile.

I would like to season myself by immersing in the program at GMBA and then take up roles at some corporate level, have first hand experience of leadership, make decisions rather than executing them ( as I do now ) before I am ready to participate and assimilate what is being taught at HAVARD and MIT.

The aspects of S.P.Jain which really attracted me is

1. It is a 1 year course: I would be employed again by nexxt June.In case of B schools in USA/Canada/Europe the classes would start only by Aug/Sep and most of them are 16- 24 months old program.

2.The course fee is nominal considering that at ISB one has to shell out 14 lakhs for the course itself. No doubt the relationship ISB shares with corporate world is much better than ours, still from the prespective of how much goes out from my pocket before I get an MBA, S.P.Jain is a safer bet.
3. S.P.Jain Global MBA program is launched from two fastest growing cities of World: Dubai and Singapore. Apart from the fun, students would get a feeling of business models across these two different but advanced countries.
4. The comfort of campus placement:Unlike B schools abroad , S.P.Jain still follows the indian way of campus placement. I woould have to depend on lots of contact list abroad to get a job there.

5.People out there are from the cream of lot:S.P.Jain takes lot of efforts in getting the best guest lectures and faculty. The students enrolling in are among the best in the country and the curicullum is dynamic and market relevant. Also the location to which placements are there is the fastest growing region in world ( India and APAC).

I am sure the time ahead with S.P.Jain would be an enrcihing experience but would still like few things to change from S.P.Jain prespective.

1.First and foremost the selection criteria hugley empahsises on academic strength. Though this is essential, the school should also consider other aspects like :
Challenges in which a student has grown up,
Extra curicullar activities(Why not induct a budding cricketer for the program: I am sure he would grow up to be one of the best captain India has seen :-)),and Social activities ( What have we done for society? environment? are we responsible enough ? )

2.Also the guest lectures could include a huge set of profiles from different background. what about asking Major general of a Indian Armed forces to teach us about Team building ? or star powers like Shah rukh Khan giving us an approach on how he managed his career , pulled his career from no where to be the brand ambassador of Bollywood.

3.Arranging meet ups with alumni or current student: Being a new program the prespective students have lots of question on how to carry cash ? Hostel life ? things to carry and so on.School could arrange a face to face meeting with some one who has led a life there or also arrange for chat with the school administration. More Transperency could make it so much better.

4. Hunt for talent internationally: Why should SPJMR stop at India ? why not allow and make it simpler for people from other nationalities to get into the school. I am sure SPJMR could arrange for telecon or video conferencing to hunt for international talent so that we have a pool of talent spread across the globe.

5. Exchange programs and Tie ups with internationally recognised universities: This would make the students recognisable in abroad. Exchange programs with schools both from USA and China would really add to the shine. We could soon have our alumni in NISSAN japan or Lehman brothers in USA or Vodafone in UK.

6. Offering scholarship: Though SPJMR offers a nominal amount of tution money for its 1 year Global MBA program, some scholarship to the talented and needy would place the school as the hot spot for buddying global leaders.

I am sure the admission commitee would look into these aspects some time later and work on it. Right now am just planning and preparing myself to lead a monk's life at Dubai for coming 6 months.

My first step towards SPJain- GMBA: The admission process

Sucess is sweeter when it comes amidst cluters of hopelessness and Despair.

March 17, 2007: was the day which would stand apart from the other days in my calender because I got an admission offer from the S.P.Jain Global MBA Program [hence forth I would refer to this program as gmba, sorry for being lazy:-)].

August 25,2006:Looking Back, I see myself as a desperate soul who just took a flight from Dallas to Mumbai,on my birthday, with no clue on how the coming 3 weeks would be for him.

20th September,2006: The Day i wrote my GMAT but the days preceeding it saw lots of activities, re-scheduling, re-planning and risk analysis.

I had scheduled my GMAT on 20th September and had hardly prepared myself for it.Moreover the team wanted me to be at office in coming 3 weeks and was unwilling to allow me a leave for one single day.

To make things worse I had not disclosed the idea of appearing for GMAT to any one of my team mates so naturally they were taken aback by my pestering for a 3 week leave. But I got one ( i said I was getting married and they believed ! ).

I went home for a place where I could have the peace to study but things turned out to be diametrically opposite to my plans. The first week saw 3 "puja's " at home, the second saw an influx of my near and dear ones who wanted to see their lad who came back from USA in one piece. Frustated, i packed my bag and rented a hotel in mumbai for coming 5 days before I wrote my GMAT.

I went to exam hall on the D-day with lots of apprehensions and surely I didnt get the marks I dreamt of ( 750+) nonetheless i got a challenging score.

Mid-December,2006: After my GMAT, my life on any Friday, Saturday and Sunday revolved around booze, 4 friends, lots of ciggerattes and talks about all the females in the world. By this time I had started applying for schools and had occasionally used to hear aout gmba, but never paid much attention since my life revolved in being in USA. But suddenly one of my booze mates revealed that he had applied for the program and listed out its positive points.I had got Nirvana . But I was missing the bus for JANUARY admission since I had a 6 month bond with my company.

Early January,2007: Applied for the program. Note : You can only apply to one specilization.

March 11,2007: Got a call for Evaluation on Jan End but was out of town then, so deffered the call till March 11.On March 11, i went with lots of confidence oozing since I had already rehearsed interviews a lot many times. Spent most of time hunting and talking to girls. Old habits die hard ;-) .

The admission process was streneous compromising of Essays,Case studies, GD, personal interview followed by meeting with the chairman.

Had to wait for 6 more days before I got the results.

June 12,2007: Resignation from TCS. My first job , which I secured from campus( August 4, 2002). Had been in TCS since Sep9,2003. Days were filled with so many sweet bitter memories.

June 15,2007: Flight to Dubai

June 16,2007: Its a new Day, a new world , a new start and am waiting for it.